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The Xenophile Historian

K. U. P.

(Kimball's Unauthorized Perversion)


Who will win the next U.S. presidential election? There is a very accurate way to predict what Democrats and Republicans spend hundreds of millions of dollars every four years to achieve. This method was developed in 1980 and would have correctly predicted the results of every presidential election since 1860! It works as follows:

The Affirmatives

Look at the political party that currently holds the White House. For every one of the next five questions that can be answered "YES", give the incumbent party one point.

1. Is the incumbent party's candidate charismatic?
2. Did the current administration score a major success in military action or foreign policy?
3. During the past four years, dd the current president make major changes in domestic policy?
4. Is the incumbent running for re-election?
5. Has economic growth over the past four years produced a Gross Domestic Product that grew by an average of at least 1% more than it did during the previous four?

The Negatives

The next eight questions work the opposite way. For every one that can be answered "NO", give the incumbent party one point.

6. Did the opposition nominate a war hero or charismatic candidate?
7. Is there a strong independent or third party candidate?
8. Was there a major scandal in the current administration?
9. Was there a major foreign or military reversal?
10. Was there an election year recession or depression?
11. Did the incumbent party win with less than 51% of the vote last time?
12. Did the incumbent party go through a major battle for the nomination?
13. Was there major social unrest?

The Results

Add up the total number of points. If it is 8 or more, the incumbent party will win another term; otherwise the White House will go to the opposition. Here is how the formula has worked in recent elections:

1980: Democrat Jimmy Carter had only 3 of the 13 questions in his favor, so Republican Ronald Reagan took his place.

1984: Reagan had 11 points at this date, so he had no trouble keeping the White House.

1988: Reagan's successor, George H. Bush, started with 9 points, hence four more Republican years.

1992: Now only seven of the questions went for Bush, so Democrat Bill Clinton moves in. Blame it on Ross Perot.

1996: Clinton had 8 this year, barely enough to stay.

2000: The Democrats had 6 this time, so even though this was the closest presidential election in 200 years, the winner was correctly picked again--Republican George W. Bush.

2004: Bush had three affirmatives (#2-4) and six negatives (#7, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 13) in his favor, so with a score of nine, I correctly predicted that he would do a little better than he did in 2000.

2008: This time the incumbent (Republican) party had 7 questions in its favor, so the voters told Democrat Barack Obama, "Yes, you can."

2012: With 8 questions on his side, Obama was re-elected, despite a dismal economy.

2016: The Democrats only got two questions this time (#10 & 11), so while the pollsters and the media were predicting Hillary Clinton would win, this formula told me not to trust them, and I was right. They got Trumped!

To check out the results of previous elections for yourself, please visit my presidential election page.

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© Copyright 2016 Charles Kimball

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