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The Xenophile Historian

K. U. P.

(Kimball's Unauthorized Perversion)

Spengler's Laws

In the fall of 2011 I read David P. Goldman's provocative book, How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too). The premise behind the book is that because of falling birthrates, world population will reach its peak in the middle of the twenty-first century, and then go into a long decline after that. For Europe, Russia and Japan, the decline has already begun; within a few decades, the Islamic nations will also level off, and then their communities will shrink even faster. In fact, according to Goldman's view, the two modern nations with the healthiest birthrate are the United States and Israel, so the future is for them, if they can survive the present.

Goldman writes a column using the name of Spengler, after the nineteenth-century historian and all-around pessimist. To spice up his book, he inserts one of his rules of history from time to time, what he calls "Spengler's Universal Laws." Now when I wrote my own theory of history, I finished by listing the ten most important trends of world history. Spengler's laws turned out to be very compatible with what I believe, so for your benefit, here they all are in one place:


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